Non-production · Synthetic data
US 10Y4.18%+3BPDE 10Y2.61%-1BPJP 10Y1.58%+2BPUK 10Y4.42%+4BPIT-DE SPREAD118BP-2BPUS 2S10S+34BP+5BPDXY98.42+0.09%EUR/USD1.0871-0.11%USD/JPY147.35+0.24%USD/CNY7.1180+0.06%US 5Y BREAKEVEN2.31%+2BPFED DEC IMPLIED-18BP-3BPECB TERMINAL1.92%-1BPEM SOV SPREAD312BP+6BPGLOBAL PMI51.4+0.3

All complexes · Seaborne and pipeline flows · 30-day average volume

Live · Freight

Diverted tonnage added nine days to the Gulf–Asia clean route

Rerouting absorbed spare tanker capacity and changed the synthetic time-charter series.

  1. Freight rates led product cracks for a second weekTankers · 30m
  2. Ballast legs lengthened in the Atlantic basinShipping · 2h
  3. Insurance premia widened on two corridorsRisk · 4h

Physical and paper measures separated in the current sample.

Synthetic physical-market interview

Supply & trade flows

Export licences broadened for processed minerals as buyers rewrote term contracts

The licensing change widened the qualified exporter set and moved negotiations toward multi-year offtake. Refiners in two importing regions reopened tenders in the synthetic record.

Energy

Crude allocations to Asian refiners held flat for the cycle

Term nominations reached the upper end of the fixture range.

Agriculture

Soybean loadings ran above the prior synthetic season

Port line-ups, rather than crop volume, constrained the fixture.

Flows, in brief

  1. Nickel processing rules changed the export mixIndonesia · 35m
  2. LNG cargoes rerouted toward the Atlantic basinQatar · 1h
  3. Rail capacity constrained grain loadingsCanada · 2h
  4. Refining ramp changed regional product flowsNigeria · 5h
  5. Wheat tender cleared below the referenceEgypt · 7h
  6. Seaborne crude discounts narrowedRussia · 11h

Curve structure

  • Brent M1–M6+1.90
  • WTI M1–M6+1.24
  • Copper cash–3M−18.5
  • TTF Q1–Q2+2.10
  • Soybeans Nov–Mar−14½
  • Iron ore M1–M3+0.85

Inventories

Days of cover sat below the synthetic five-year band in three complexes

The curve and inventory fixtures remain internally consistent.

Chokepoints

Two canal transits remained rationed under draft limits

The fixture records the resulting route changes.

Energy

  1. Product cracks widened in middle distillates2h
  2. Refinery maintenance extended by a week5h
  3. Storage draws exceeded the seasonal sample9h

Metals

  1. Smelter treatment charges settled lower1h
  2. Warehouse stocks shifted between venues4h
  3. Scrap availability tightened in two regions8h

Agriculture

  1. Crush margins improved on meal demand3h
  2. Planting intentions were revised upward6h
  3. Freight spread narrowed on the Paraná10h

Policy

  1. Export-duty review entered consultation2h
  2. Strategic-reserve schedule was published6h
  3. Biofuel blending mandate increased12h